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Reliability growth plots have a variety of names known as: They are log-log plots showing reliability trends of improvement, deterioration, or no-change no improvement or deterioration. The most common plot is cumulative failures versus cumulative time.
Often the Y-axis is transformed to plot cumulative mean time versus cumulative time which makes it easy to interpret—when the line slope is upward and to the right, reliability An analysis of army improving; likewise when it is trending downward and to the right, reliability is deteriorating.
You can use your maintenance data records to forecast future failures. Also you can see the results of improvement programs and easily calculate the changes from the straight lines and the cusps produced by improvement programs.
Fortunately, the trend lines often have straight line segments, and this makes predictions of future failures a simple matter. Your explanations are never going to be simpler than cumulative failures versus cumulative time shown in Figure 1.
The straight trend line offers a methodology for making fearless forecasts of future failures even when your data contains mixed failure modes. We need relationships that provide an analog of physical and human experiences.
Thus we the need a reliability growth plot to give us clues about changes in failure rates. As reliability engineers, our task is to put a cusp on the trend line by making cost effective improvements so the cumulative failure versus cumulative time trend line has a flatter slope i.
Frequently, reliability changes usually occur in steps. Reliability improvements involve elapsed time and failures. When cumulative time plotted on the X-axis and cumulative failures plotted on the Y-axis are plotted on uniformly divided graphs they provide us an analogy of physical experiences as a curved plot.
Experience shows conversion of curved analog plots of improvement efforts can often be transformed into straight line analog plots by use of simple two-axis logarithmic plots. The task of most reliability engineers is to force cusps a break in the straight line trend line of cumulative failures on the Y-axis versus cumulative time on the X-axis on the reliability growth lines so that longer intervals of time occur between failures.
Reliability improvement efforts should occur until the cost of making improvements is no longer justified or until objectives of the client have been reached. The forerunner of the concept has parallel roots in manufacturing and has been exhaustedly demonstrated as true log-log phenomena.
Consider the following parallel. Wright pioneered an idea that improvements in the time to manufacture an airplane could be described mathematically--a very helpful concept for management production planning. Thus a unit of production will decrease by a constant percentage each time the production quantity is doubled.
The plots have three different formats: Learning curves were used extensively by General Electric, and a GE reliability engineer made log-log plots of cumulative MTBF versus cumulative time which gave a straight line for reliability issues Duane Duane argued that all failure data should be used on complex electromechanical systems.
Duane drew his conclusions from studying 5 different data sets and found remarkable similarly in patterns for the curves meaning the line slopes were about the same. James Duane had a deterministic postulate for monitoring failures and failure rates of a complex system over time using a log-log plot with straight lines.
The ultimate goal of the improvement program was to make reliability grow so as to meet the system reliability and performance requirements by managing the development program.
The management effort required making reliability: Reliability growth program required goals and forecast of progress. Two excellent documents on the subject of reliability growth are:UNDERSTANDING HUMAN PERFORMANCE IN CRITICAL INCIDENTS. Increased attacks on law enforcement, strained community-police relations, terrorism, violent extremism, advancing technology, police reform, de-escalation, increased calls for service outside of the traditional norms of duty – these are just a few of the challenges our .
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UNDERSTANDING HUMAN PERFORMANCE IN CRITICAL INCIDENTS. Increased attacks on law enforcement, strained community-police relations, terrorism, violent extremism, advancing technology, police reform, de-escalation, increased calls for service outside of the traditional norms of duty – these are just a few of the challenges our profession is contending with.
Total Army Analysis (TAA) I. Force Development Process (overview) 1. The focus of this primer is the Total Army Analysis process. In order to understand the TAA. Post Politics from The Washington Post is the source for political news headlines, in-depth politics coverage and political opinion, plus breaking news on the Obama administration and White House.
On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War [Harry G. Summers] on schwenkreis.com *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Summer's inspired analysis of America's war in Vietnam answers the most pressing questions remaining from that terrible conflict more than a decade before Robert McNamara's painful admissions.